Posted on Tue 03 May 2022

predictions for 2023

Last night Politico published an unprecedented leak of a Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade, the decision that established a right of privacy and the consequent right to an abortion. The opinion of the court’s reactionary majority specifically includes reasoning to overturn the decisions about marriage equality, legal contraception, and general privacy of sexual behavior.

Assuming that the opinion is issued substantially as-is, I will make some predictions about 2023.

  • ‘Red’ states will pass laws restricting basic civil rights.
  • Corporations that rely on high-skill workers will not be able to hire them in those states.
  • Those corporations will move out of the red states.
  • The economies of red states are substantially worse off compared to blue states now. When the corporations move out, the tax base will be further reduced.
  • When the Federal budget is roughly balanced, blue states subsidize red states. The Federal budget is running at a significant deficit in order to prop up the economy.
  • Option 1: the attack on civil rights is enough to change Congress definitively to blue in November.
    • The Supreme Court will be expanded to 15 or 17 justices.
    • The Republican Party splinters.
  • Option 2: Congress becomes red in November, or wishy-washy.
    • The United States tends towards a Christian Fascist state.


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