Posted on Thu 14 December 2023

prediction scoring

In May of 2022, I made a few predictions about US politics

Here’s the meat:

 Assuming that the opinion is issued substantially as-is, I will make some predictions about 2023.
 ‘Red’ states will pass laws restricting basic civil rights...  
 Corporations that rely on high-skill workers will not be able to hire them in those states.
    Those corporations will move out of the red states.
    The economies of red states are substantially worse off compared to blue states now. When the corporations move out, the tax base will be further reduced.
    When the Federal budget is roughly balanced, blue states subsidize red states. The Federal budget is running at a significant deficit in order to prop up the economy.
Option 1: the attack on civil rights is enough to change Congress definitively to blue in November.
    The Supreme Court will be expanded to 15 or 17 justices.
    The Republican Party splinters.
Option 2: Congress becomes red in November, or wishy-washy.
    The United States tends towards a Christian Fascist state.

How did I do?

Red states did pass laws restricting civil rights, especially abortion. {100%}

Corporations are having trouble getting high-skill workers to move to Red {75%} states.

Some have moved out, some are planning to do so, some are not. {50%}

Red state economies have suffered more in the last 18 months. {100%}

Option 1: did not happen.

Option 2: went wishy-washy {25%}

Better than throwing darts at a dartboard, not really good enough to commit to a single plan.

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